Fixtures/October 2026/10–12 October
Coventry City v Newcastle United prediction
Updated 2026-10-02 19:15 UTC; updates until kick-off, then locks.
Our analysis
Our model makes Newcastle United favourites for their trip to Coventry City at Coventry Building Society Arena on Monday 12 October 2026: Coventry 32%, draw 26%, Newcastle 42%. The most likely score is 1–2, with 2.9 goals expected in total (57% chance of three or more; 60% that both teams score).
Coventry are 18th on 3 points from 5 games and have won 1 and drawn 1 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 5 they created 1.0 expected goals a game and allowed 1.7. Newcastle are 9th on 8 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 2 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.4 expected goals a game and allowed 1.6.
In their last 6 Premier League meetings, Coventry won 1, Newcastle won 5. The most recent finished Newcastle 3–1 Coventry (2000-01).
Our AI second opinion, Jev, agrees: it rates Newcastle win most likely at 58% (Coventry 17%, draw 25%, Newcastle 58%).
Second opinions
| Source | Coventry | Draw | Newcastle | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats model | 32% | 26% | 42% | 1–2 |
| Jev (AI) | 17% | 25% | 58% | 1–2 |
| Consensus | 24% | 26% | 50% | – |
Jev is an AI model from TypeSafe AI. It reads a written briefing (the table, each side's last 12 results with expected goals, home and away records, head-to-head) and answers three yes/no questions. It never sees our model or the odds. Consensus averages the two. Bookmaker closing odds, with the margin removed, appear after the game as a benchmark.
Every scoreline
| COV ↓ NEW → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Chance (%) of each exact score: Coventry's goals down the side, Newcastle's across. Red outline = the single most likely score. Our headline pick is the likeliest score for the likeliest result.
Coventry form
WLLLLD latest first
Newcastle form
WLDWDL latest first
Head to head
| Season | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-01 | 
Newcastle | 3–1 | 
Coventry |
| 2000-01 |
Coventry | 0–2 |
Newcastle |
| 1999-00 |
Newcastle | 2–0 |
Coventry |
| 1999-00 |
Coventry | 4–1 |
Newcastle |
| 1998-99 |
Newcastle | 4–1 |
Coventry |
| 1998-99 |
Coventry | 1–5 |
Newcastle |
Questions
Who will win Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Our statistical model says Newcastle United are favourites: Coventry win 32%, draw 26%, Newcastle win 42%. The AI model Jev gives 17%, 25% and 58%.
What is the predicted score for Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Coventry 1–2 Newcastle is our predicted score, with 1.4–1.6 expected goals. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 57% and of both teams scoring 60%.
When and where is Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Monday 12 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UK time, at Coventry Building Society Arena. It's a Premier League match.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry City and Newcastle United?
The last meeting was Newcastle United 3–1 Coventry City in 2000-01. Recent Premier League meetings: Newcastle 3–1 Coventry (2000-01); Coventry 0–2 Newcastle (2000-01); Newcastle 2–0 Coventry (1999-00); Coventry 4–1 Newcastle (1999-00); Newcastle 4–1 Coventry (1998-99).