Premier League 2026-27 Friday 2 October 2026
AI Football Predictor
Marked in public

Our track record

Every prediction locks at kick-off and is never edited. We mark it on the result, the exact score and log loss, which rewards confident correct calls and punishes confident wrong ones (lower is better). The bookmakers' closing odds are the benchmark.

2026-27 so far

PredictorTypeGamesRight resultExact scoreLog loss
Stats modelPre-launch5044%8%1.043
Jev (AI)Pre-launch5050%6%1.049
ConsensusPre-launch5044%–1.042
BookmakersClosing odds5046%–1.053

"Pre-launch" covers games played before the site went live: those predictions were generated afterwards, using only data from before each game. That makes them an honest test of the method, but they weren't published in advance. For log loss, every predictor's probabilities are floored at 1% per outcome, so one "0% chance" call can't make the average meaningless.

Long-run test since 2005-06

8,030Matches
54%Right result (bookies 55%)
0.969Log loss (bookies 0.957)
SeasonOur accuracyBookmakersOur log lossBookmakers
2026-2744%46%1.0431.053
2025-2648%49%1.0251.015
2024-2555%55%0.9700.966
2023-2458%60%0.9260.900
2022-2354%55%0.9790.962
2021-2254%58%0.9570.937
2020-2151%52%1.0110.997
2019-2053%54%0.9730.972
2018-1961%58%0.9030.891
2017-1856%54%0.9550.941
2016-1758%61%0.9390.906
2015-1647%47%1.0361.033
2014-1553%53%0.9800.970
2013-1458%61%0.9510.928
2012-1352%53%0.9660.957
2011-1253%52%0.9870.984
2010-1149%50%1.0211.011
2009-1055%56%0.9390.929
2008-0957%54%0.9600.960
2007-0856%58%0.9340.924
2006-0752%52%0.9850.973
2005-0658%57%0.9480.937

Walk-forward test: each week the model was refitted using only earlier matches, then predicted that week. Settings were tuned on 2005–2017 and checked, untouched, on 2018 onwards.

Every result this season

DateMatchResultPredictedH · D · A
Sun 20 Sep FUL v MUN 1–1 1–234 · 27 · 40Missed
Sun 20 Sep MCI v SUN 5–3 2–062 · 23 · 15Right result
Sun 20 Sep LEE v CRY 0–0 2–154 · 24 · 22Missed
Sun 20 Sep BOU v LIV 0–1 2–144 · 24 · 32Missed
Sat 19 Sep NOT v COV 0–1 1–055 · 25 · 19Missed
Sat 19 Sep NEW v HUL 2–1 2–147 · 26 · 27Exact score
Sat 19 Sep EVE v IPS 1–0 2–059 · 24 · 17Right result
Sat 19 Sep BHA v ARS 3–0 1–224 · 26 · 50Missed
Sat 19 Sep TOT v AVL 2–3 2–142 · 26 · 32Missed
Fri 18 Sep BRE v CHE 3–0 2–143 · 24 · 33Right result
Mon 14 Sep LEE v NEW 4–1 2–146 · 25 · 29Right result
Sun 13 Sep MUN v MCI 0–1 1–231 · 25 · 44Right result
Sun 13 Sep COV v BHA 0–5 1–231 · 27 · 41Right result
Sat 12 Sep SUN v ARS 0–2 0–119 · 27 · 54Right result
Sat 12 Sep TOT v EVE 0–0 2–139 · 28 · 33Missed
Sat 12 Sep LIV v FUL 0–0 2–158 · 22 · 19Missed
Sat 12 Sep CRY v IPS 2–3 2–162 · 21 · 17Missed
Sat 12 Sep CHE v HUL 2–2 2–153 · 24 · 22Missed
Sat 12 Sep BOU v BRE 2–2 2–149 · 24 · 27Missed
Sat 12 Sep AVL v NOT 1–2 2–143 · 27 · 30Missed
Sun 6 Sep ARS v CHE 2–1 2–066 · 20 · 14Right result
Sun 6 Sep EVE v MUN 2–2 2–137 · 27 · 36Missed
Sat 5 Sep HUL v AVL 0–0 2–137 · 27 · 35Missed
Sat 5 Sep NOT v TOT 0–0 2–146 · 26 · 28Missed
Sat 5 Sep MCI v COV 1–0 2–071 · 18 · 11Right result
Sat 5 Sep FUL v CRY 2–3 2–142 · 27 · 31Missed
Sat 5 Sep BHA v LEE 1–1 2–144 · 26 · 30Missed
Sat 5 Sep BRE v SUN 1–1 2–149 · 26 · 25Missed
Sat 5 Sep NEW v BOU 2–2 2–140 · 24 · 36Missed
Fri 4 Sep IPS v LIV 0–2 1–217 · 20 · 63Right result
Mon 31 Aug AVL v ARS 0–1 0–121 · 25 · 53Exact score
Sun 30 Aug MUN v IPS 5–2 2–070 · 18 · 12Right result
Sun 30 Aug SUN v FUL 1–0 1–040 · 29 · 31Exact score
Sun 30 Aug LEE v BRE 1–1 2–147 · 25 · 28Missed
Sun 30 Aug CHE v BHA 4–3 2–141 · 25 · 34Right result
Sat 29 Aug TOT v NEW 0–2 2–139 · 24 · 37Missed
Sat 29 Aug COV v HUL 0–1 2–140 · 27 · 33Missed
Sat 29 Aug BOU v EVE 1–1 2–151 · 25 · 24Missed
Sat 29 Aug LIV v NOT 2–2 2–155 · 23 · 21Missed
Fri 28 Aug CRY v MCI 1–4 1–225 · 24 · 51Right result
Mon 24 Aug FUL v CHE 2–3 2–140 · 26 · 35Missed
Sun 23 Aug NEW v LIV 2–2 2–138 · 24 · 38Missed
Sun 23 Aug MCI v BOU 2–1 2–156 · 23 · 22Exact score
Sun 23 Aug BHA v AVL 4–0 2–145 · 26 · 30Right result
Sat 22 Aug BRE v TOT 3–0 2–146 · 24 · 29Right result
Sat 22 Aug NOT v LEE 0–1 1–236 · 27 · 36Right result
Sat 22 Aug IPS v SUN 2–1 0–126 · 27 · 46Missed
Sat 22 Aug EVE v CRY 2–0 1–042 · 28 · 30Right result
Sat 22 Aug HUL v MUN 2–0 1–227 · 25 · 48Missed
Fri 21 Aug ARS v COV 3–0 2–071 · 19 · 10Right result

Questions

How accurate are these Premier League predictions?

Over 8,030 matches since 2005-06, the model picked the right result 54% of the time, against 55% for the bookmakers' closing favourite. This season so far: 44% from 50 games.

Do the predictions beat the bookmakers?

Not over the long run. Our log loss is 0.969 against the bookmakers' 0.957 (lower is better). Closing odds are the sharpest public forecast, so getting close is the realistic aim. This season so far it is 1.043 against 1.053.

Are predictions changed after kick-off?

No. Every prediction locks at kick-off and is never edited; the accuracy page scores only those locked predictions, with games from before the site launched shown separately.