Predicted Premier League table 2026-27
Starting from the real table, we play out every remaining fixture 10,000 times with our match model, then count how often each club finishes where.
| # | Club | Now | Pts | GD | Title | Top 4 | Top 5 | Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 
Arsenal |
12 (5) | 78 | +35 | 56% | 98% | 99% | 0% |
| 2 | 
Manchester City |
15 (5) | 75 | +32 | 38% | 96% | 98% | 0% |
| 3 | 
Liverpool |
9 (5) | 62 | +15 | 2% | 49% | 63% | 0% |
| 4 | 
Brighton & Hove Albion |
10 (5) | 62 | +21 | 2% | 48% | 61% | 0% |
| 5 | 
Leeds United |
9 (5) | 57 | +9 | 1% | 24% | 36% | 1% |
| 6 | 
Brentford |
9 (5) | 56 | +8 | 0% | 18% | 29% | 1% |
| 7 | 
Bournemouth |
3 (5) | 55 | +9 | 0% | 17% | 27% | 1% |
| 8 | 
Manchester United |
5 (5) | 55 | +7 | 0% | 16% | 25% | 2% |
| 9 | 
Chelsea |
7 (5) | 53 | -1 | 0% | 11% | 18% | 3% |
| 10 | 
Newcastle United |
8 (5) | 52 | -2 | 0% | 8% | 15% | 3% |
| 11 | 
Everton |
9 (5) | 52 | -1 | 0% | 7% | 12% | 4% |
| 12 | 
Sunderland |
4 (5) | 48 | -6 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 10% |
| 13 | 
Hull City |
8 (5) | 47 | -6 | 0% | 2% | 4% | 11% |
| 14 | 
Nottingham Forest |
5 (5) | 47 | -6 | 0% | 2% | 4% | 13% |
| 15 | 
Aston Villa |
4 (5) | 45 | -12 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 18% |
| 16 | 
Crystal Palace |
4 (5) | 43 | -15 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 25% |
| 17 | 
Fulham |
2 (5) | 43 | -10 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 27% |
| 18 | 
Tottenham Hotspur |
2 (5) | 39 | -19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| 19 | 
Coventry City |
3 (5) | 37 | -26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 60% |
| 20 | 
Ipswich Town |
6 (5) | 35 | -32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75% |
"Now" = current points (games played). Rules mark the top four and the relegation zone. Top five matters because England has recently earned a fifth Champions League place. Chances under 0.5% show as 0%.
Questions
Who will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
Our model makes Arsenal favourites at 56%, ahead of Manchester City (38%) and Liverpool (2%).
Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?
Most likely to go down: Ipswich Town (75%), Coventry City (60%), Tottenham Hotspur (47%).
Who will finish in the top four in 2026-27?
Most likely top four: Arsenal (98%), Manchester City (96%), Liverpool (49%), Brighton & Hove Albion (48%).