Fixtures/October 2026/10–12 October
Aston Villa v Brentford prediction
Updated 2026-10-02 19:15 UTC; updates until kick-off, then locks.
Our analysis
Our model can barely separate Aston Villa and Brentford at Villa Park on Saturday 10 October 2026: Aston Villa 37%, draw 25%, Brentford 37%. The most likely score is 2–1, with 3.2 goals expected in total (62% chance of three or more; 64% that both teams score).
Aston Villa are 16th on 4 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.3 expected goals a game and allowed 1.8. Brentford are 4th on 9 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 4 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.8 expected goals a game and allowed 1.9.
In their last 6 Premier League meetings, Aston Villa won 3, Brentford won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent finished Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford (2025-26).
Our AI second opinion, Jev, agrees: it rates Aston Villa win most likely at 42% (Aston Villa 42%, draw 28%, Brentford 31%).
Second opinions
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats model | 37% | 25% | 37% | 2–1 |
| Jev (AI) | 42% | 28% | 31% | 2–1 |
| Consensus | 40% | 26% | 34% | – |
Jev is an AI model from TypeSafe AI. It reads a written briefing (the table, each side's last 12 results with expected goals, home and away records, head-to-head) and answers three yes/no questions. It never sees our model or the odds. Consensus averages the two. Bookmaker closing odds, with the margin removed, appear after the game as a benchmark.
Every scoreline
| AVL ↓ BRE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Chance (%) of each exact score: Aston Villa's goals down the side, Brentford's across. Red outline = the single most likely score. Our headline pick is the likeliest score for the likeliest result.
Aston Villa form
WLDLLW latest first
Brentford form
WDDDWD latest first
Head to head
| Season | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 
Aston Villa | 0–1 | 
Brentford |
| 2025-26 |
Brentford | 1–0 |
Aston Villa |
| 2024-25 |
Brentford | 0–1 |
Aston Villa |
| 2024-25 |
Aston Villa | 3–1 |
Brentford |
| 2023-24 |
Aston Villa | 3–3 |
Brentford |
| 2023-24 |
Brentford | 1–2 |
Aston Villa |
Questions
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our statistical model says Aston Villa are favourites: Aston Villa win 37%, draw 25%, Brentford win 37%. The AI model Jev gives 42%, 28% and 31%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford is our predicted score, with 1.6–1.6 expected goals. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 62% and of both teams scoring 64%.
When and where is Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Saturday 10 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time, at Villa Park. It's a Premier League match.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Brentford?
The last meeting was Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford in 2025-26. Recent Premier League meetings: Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford (2025-26); Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa (2025-26); Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa (2024-25); Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford (2024-25); Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford (2023-24).