Fixtures/October 2026/10–12 October
Chelsea v Bournemouth prediction
Updated 2026-10-02 19:15 UTC; updates until kick-off, then locks.
Our analysis
Our model can barely separate Chelsea and Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on Saturday 10 October 2026: Chelsea 38%, draw 24%, Bournemouth 38%. The most likely score is 1–2, with 3.4 goals expected in total (67% chance of three or more; 68% that both teams score).
Chelsea are 10th on 7 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.4 expected goals a game and allowed 2.0. Bournemouth are 17th on 3 points from 5 games and are without a win in their last 6 league games (4 drawn). Over their last 10 they created 1.6 expected goals a game and allowed 1.3.
In their last 6 Premier League meetings, Chelsea won 2, Bournemouth won 0 and 4 were drawn. The most recent finished Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth (2025-26).
Our AI second opinion, Jev, disagrees: it rates Chelsea win most likely at 48% (Chelsea 48%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 24%).
Second opinions
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Bournemouth | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats model | 38% | 24% | 38% | 1–2 |
| Jev (AI) | 48% | 27% | 24% | 2–1 |
| Consensus | 43% | 26% | 31% | – |
Jev is an AI model from TypeSafe AI. It reads a written briefing (the table, each side's last 12 results with expected goals, home and away records, head-to-head) and answers three yes/no questions. It never sees our model or the odds. Consensus averages the two. Bookmaker closing odds, with the margin removed, appear after the game as a benchmark.
Every scoreline
| CHE ↓ BOU → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Chance (%) of each exact score: Chelsea's goals down the side, Bournemouth's across. Red outline = the single most likely score. Our headline pick is the likeliest score for the likeliest result.
Chelsea form
LDLWWL latest first
Bournemouth form
LDDDLD latest first
Head to head
| Season | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 
Chelsea | 2–2 | 
Bournemouth |
| 2025-26 |
Bournemouth | 0–0 |
Chelsea |
| 2024-25 |
Chelsea | 2–2 |
Bournemouth |
| 2024-25 |
Bournemouth | 0–1 |
Chelsea |
| 2023-24 |
Chelsea | 2–1 |
Bournemouth |
| 2023-24 |
Bournemouth | 0–0 |
Chelsea |
Questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model says Bournemouth are favourites: Chelsea win 38%, draw 24%, Bournemouth win 38%. The AI model Jev gives 48%, 27% and 24%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Chelsea 1–2 Bournemouth is our predicted score, with 1.7–1.7 expected goals. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 67% and of both teams scoring 68%.
When and where is Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Saturday 10 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time, at Stamford Bridge. It's a Premier League match.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Bournemouth?
The last meeting was Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth in 2025-26. Recent Premier League meetings: Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth (2025-26); Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea (2025-26); Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth (2024-25); Bournemouth 0–1 Chelsea (2024-25); Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth (2023-24).