Fixtures/October 2026/10–12 October
Liverpool v Manchester City prediction
Updated 2026-10-02 19:15 UTC; updates until kick-off, then locks.
Our analysis
Our model can barely separate Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday 11 October 2026: Liverpool 37%, draw 25%, Man City 38%. The most likely score is 1–2, with 3.3 goals expected in total (63% chance of three or more; 66% that both teams score).
Liverpool are 6th on 9 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 4 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.6 expected goals a game and allowed 1.6. Man City are 1st on 15 points from 5 games and have won 5 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 2.1 expected goals a game and allowed 1.4.
In their last 6 Premier League meetings, Liverpool won 2, Man City won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent finished Liverpool 1–2 Man City (2025-26).
Our AI second opinion, Jev, agrees: it rates Man City win most likely at 47% (Liverpool 28%, draw 26%, Man City 47%).
Second opinions
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Man City | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats model | 37% | 25% | 38% | 1–2 |
| Jev (AI) | 28% | 26% | 47% | 1–2 |
| Consensus | 32% | 25% | 43% | – |
Jev is an AI model from TypeSafe AI. It reads a written briefing (the table, each side's last 12 results with expected goals, home and away records, head-to-head) and answers three yes/no questions. It never sees our model or the odds. Consensus averages the two. Bookmaker closing odds, with the margin removed, appear after the game as a benchmark.
Every scoreline
| LIV ↓ MCI → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Chance (%) of each exact score: Liverpool's goals down the side, Man City's across. Red outline = the single most likely score. Our headline pick is the likeliest score for the likeliest result.
Liverpool form
WDWDDD latest first
Man City form
WWWWWL latest first
Head to head
| Season | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 
Liverpool | 1–2 | 
Man City |
| 2025-26 |
Man City | 3–0 |
Liverpool |
| 2024-25 |
Man City | 0–2 |
Liverpool |
| 2024-25 |
Liverpool | 2–0 |
Man City |
| 2023-24 |
Liverpool | 1–1 |
Man City |
| 2023-24 |
Man City | 1–1 |
Liverpool |
Questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model says Manchester City are favourites: Liverpool win 37%, draw 25%, Man City win 38%. The AI model Jev gives 28%, 26% and 47%.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Liverpool 1–2 Man City is our predicted score, with 1.6–1.7 expected goals. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 63% and of both teams scoring 66%.
When and where is Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UK time, at Anfield. It's a Premier League match.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Manchester City?
The last meeting was Liverpool 1–2 Manchester City in 2025-26. Recent Premier League meetings: Liverpool 1–2 Man City (2025-26); Man City 3–0 Liverpool (2025-26); Man City 0–2 Liverpool (2024-25); Liverpool 2–0 Man City (2024-25); Liverpool 1–1 Man City (2023-24).