Fixtures/October 2026/10–12 October
Arsenal v Leeds United prediction
Updated 2026-10-02 19:15 UTC; updates until kick-off, then locks.
Our analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at home to Leeds United at Emirates Stadium on Saturday 10 October 2026: Arsenal 60%, draw 24%, Leeds 16%. The most likely score is 2–0, with 2.7 goals expected in total (52% chance of three or more; 50% that both teams score).
Arsenal are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games and have won 5 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 2.1 expected goals a game and allowed 1.0. Leeds are 5th on 9 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 3 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.5 expected goals a game and allowed 1.5.
In their last 6 Premier League meetings, Arsenal won all 6. The most recent finished Leeds 0–4 Arsenal (2025-26).
Our AI second opinion, Jev, agrees: it rates Arsenal win most likely at 75% (Arsenal 75%, draw 17%, Leeds 8%).
Second opinions
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats model | 60% | 24% | 16% | 2–0 |
| Jev (AI) | 75% | 17% | 8% | 3–1 |
| Consensus | 68% | 21% | 12% | – |
Jev is an AI model from TypeSafe AI. It reads a written briefing (the table, each side's last 12 results with expected goals, home and away records, head-to-head) and answers three yes/no questions. It never sees our model or the odds. Consensus averages the two. Bookmaker closing odds, with the margin removed, appear after the game as a benchmark.
Every scoreline
| ARS ↓ LEE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Chance (%) of each exact score: Arsenal's goals down the side, Leeds's across. Red outline = the single most likely score. Our headline pick is the likeliest score for the likeliest result.
Arsenal form
LWWWWW latest first
Leeds form
DWDDWL latest first
Head to head
| Season | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 
Leeds | 0–4 | 
Arsenal |
| 2025-26 |
Arsenal | 5–0 |
Leeds |
| 2022-23 |
Arsenal | 4–1 |
Leeds |
| 2022-23 |
Leeds | 0–1 |
Arsenal |
| 2021-22 |
Arsenal | 2–1 |
Leeds |
| 2021-22 |
Leeds | 1–4 |
Arsenal |
Questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Our statistical model says Arsenal are favourites: Arsenal win 60%, draw 24%, Leeds win 16%. The AI model Jev gives 75%, 17% and 8%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal 2–0 Leeds is our predicted score, with 1.9–0.9 expected goals. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 52% and of both teams scoring 50%.
When and where is Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Saturday 10 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UK time, at Emirates Stadium. It's a Premier League match.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Leeds United?
The last meeting was Leeds United 0–4 Arsenal in 2025-26. Recent Premier League meetings: Leeds 0–4 Arsenal (2025-26); Arsenal 5–0 Leeds (2025-26); Arsenal 4–1 Leeds (2022-23); Leeds 0–1 Arsenal (2022-23); Arsenal 2–1 Leeds (2021-22).