Fixtures/October 2026/10–12 October
Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
Updated 2026-10-02 19:15 UTC; updates until kick-off, then locks.
Our analysis
Our model can barely separate Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion at Stadium of Light on Saturday 10 October 2026: Sunderland 34%, draw 27%, Brighton 38%. The most likely score is 1–2, with 2.8 goals expected in total (53% chance of three or more; 58% that both teams score).
Sunderland are 14th on 4 points from 5 games and have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 1.6 expected goals a game and allowed 1.5. Brighton are 3rd on 10 points from 5 games and have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 6 league games. Over their last 10 they created 2.2 expected goals a game and allowed 1.6.
In their last 2 Premier League meetings, Sunderland won 0, Brighton won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent finished Sunderland 0–1 Brighton (2025-26).
Our AI second opinion, Jev, agrees: it rates Brighton win most likely at 49% (Sunderland 26%, draw 25%, Brighton 49%).
Second opinions
| Source | Sunderland | Draw | Brighton | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats model | 34% | 27% | 38% | 1–2 |
| Jev (AI) | 26% | 25% | 49% | 1–2 |
| Consensus | 30% | 26% | 44% | – |
Jev is an AI model from TypeSafe AI. It reads a written briefing (the table, each side's last 12 results with expected goals, home and away records, head-to-head) and answers three yes/no questions. It never sees our model or the odds. Consensus averages the two. Bookmaker closing odds, with the margin removed, appear after the game as a benchmark.
Every scoreline
| SUN ↓ BHA → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Chance (%) of each exact score: Sunderland's goals down the side, Brighton's across. Red outline = the single most likely score. Our headline pick is the likeliest score for the likeliest result.
Sunderland form
LLDWLW latest first
Brighton form
WWDLWL latest first
Head to head
| Season | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 
Sunderland | 0–1 | 
Brighton |
| 2025-26 |
Brighton | 0–0 |
Sunderland |
Questions
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Our statistical model says Brighton & Hove Albion are favourites: Sunderland win 34%, draw 27%, Brighton win 38%. The AI model Jev gives 26%, 25% and 49%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Sunderland 1–2 Brighton is our predicted score, with 1.4–1.4 expected goals. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 53% and of both teams scoring 58%.
When and where is Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Saturday 10 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time, at Stadium of Light. It's a Premier League match.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion?
The last meeting was Sunderland 0–1 Brighton & Hove Albion in 2025-26. Recent Premier League meetings: Sunderland 0–1 Brighton (2025-26); Brighton 0–0 Sunderland (2025-26).